charest support for harper … good for martin
I can’t believe that the media isn’t giving the charest endorsement of harper’s crazy plan a closer look.
Here’s why…
first if you look at the polls meticulously… the liberals and the bloc have been fairly steady in their support levels (bloc 50% - libs 30%... give or take a few points). the conservatives have hovered around the 10% mark. secondly we must consider that the spike in support for the bloc happened after the sponsorship scandal was exposed. immediately liberal support went to the bloc… so where are the CONS going to get their support from??? not the liberals… their support has been robbed like the quickie mart… its not going any lower! The CONS will get their votes from the dissatisfied federalists who are reluctantly supporting the bloc.
so let’s say there are some gains for the CONS (and that is a big if), its not going to be at the expense of the liberals. applying what I have mentioned above one can logically speculate that the support for the CONS will come from the bloc and actually help the liberals in tctc quebec ridings, by means of increased vote spliting.
Here’s why…
first if you look at the polls meticulously… the liberals and the bloc have been fairly steady in their support levels (bloc 50% - libs 30%... give or take a few points). the conservatives have hovered around the 10% mark. secondly we must consider that the spike in support for the bloc happened after the sponsorship scandal was exposed. immediately liberal support went to the bloc… so where are the CONS going to get their support from??? not the liberals… their support has been robbed like the quickie mart… its not going any lower! The CONS will get their votes from the dissatisfied federalists who are reluctantly supporting the bloc.
so let’s say there are some gains for the CONS (and that is a big if), its not going to be at the expense of the liberals. applying what I have mentioned above one can logically speculate that the support for the CONS will come from the bloc and actually help the liberals in tctc quebec ridings, by means of increased vote spliting.
regardless of what CON spinners are saying… the charest support for harper's policy announcment is not a testemate to harper’s brilliance … rather his stupidity for nipping the bait.
posted by fresh @ 1:54 a.m.
2 Comments
2 Comments:
There's one or two ridings like Pontiac where additional support for the Conservatives, from wherever, will get them a seat.
Actually only Mario Dumont came out and said he would vote Conservative. Jean Charest supported one of Harper's ideas, but has refused to support Harper. Much like Gordon Campbell's Liberals on the West Coast, his party includes supporters from both the Liberals and Conservatives so an endorsement of either is bound to alienate some of his supporters. I don't know and quite frankly don't care how Charest votes. However, I will say that even as a Liberal voter, I would vote for Jean Charest if I lived in Quebec. He is a strong federalist and despite his unpopularity he is making the necessary changes to turn Quebec around. I really hope he gets re-elected or at the very least the ADQ + PLQ have more seats than the PQ so they can form a coalition to keep the separtist out.
In Quebec I would say the Tories have a base of 5% and a ceiling of 12%. Regardless of what they get they won't win any seats in Quebec. They need at least 15% to realistically pick up seats in Quebec, which almost certainly won't happen.
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